[SMM Steel Market Morning News] The China Real Estate Association Is Scheduled to Hold the 2025 Real Estate Market Situation Report and National First-Class Qualification Real Estate Development Enterprises Symposium in Beijing from March 27 to 28.

★Macro★

01 ★★  

German Bundestag Passes Historic €100 Billion Fiscal Plan

The German Bundestag passed a €100 billion fiscal plan with more than a two-thirds majority. The plan, initiated by the Union and SPD during coalition negotiations for the next federal government and supported by the Greens, aims to provide long-term funding for infrastructure, climate protection, and defense. This decision marks a significant shift in Germany's fiscal policy. According to the plan, Germany will establish a €500 billion special fund in the form of loans for infrastructure construction and climate protection measures. Additionally, expenditures on defense, civil protection, intelligence, and cybersecurity will no longer be subject to the debt ceiling. Among these, the defense budget alone will receive an additional €100 billion in funding. Furthermore, federal states will gain greater fiscal autonomy to address their own investment needs.

★Industry and Downstream★

01 ★★★  

China Real Estate Association to Hold 2025 Real Estate Market Outlook Conference and National First-Class Real Estate Developers Symposium in Beijing, March 27-28

To thoroughly study and implement the spirit of the 2025 Two Sessions and the 2024 Central Economic Work Conference, promote real estate developers' understanding of market trends under the macroeconomic context, explore new development models, and stabilize the real estate market, the China Real Estate Association will hold the 2025 Real Estate Market Outlook Conference and National First-Class Real Estate Developers Symposium in Beijing on March 27-28, 2025. Participants include: 1. Leaders and senior/mid-level managers of national first-class real estate development enterprises; 2. Invited officials from provincial and autonomous region housing and urban-rural development departments, municipal construction committees, urban housing bureaus, and urban renewal bureaus; 3. Heads of provincial, autonomous region, and municipal real estate associations (development associations); 4. Provincial real estate management departments and associations may invite some key second-class real estate development enterprises to participate.

02 ★★★ 

SMM Electric Furnace Operating Rate: Decline in Steel Prices Narrows Electric Furnace Profits

According to an SMM survey, as of March 18, the operating rate of 50 major electric furnace steel mills producing construction materials nationwide was 40.18%, down 0.42% MoM; the capacity utilization rate was 40.89%, down 0.19% MoM; and the daily average production of construction materials was 91,100 mt, down 400 mt MoM.

03 ★★  

CRIC: Real Estate Corporate Bond Financing Totaled 22.3 Billion Yuan in February

According to CRIC monitoring, real estate corporate bond financing totaled 22.3 billion yuan in February 2025. In terms of financing structure, credit bond financing in the real estate sector reached 14.4 billion yuan (64.6%), overseas bond financing was 3.59 billion yuan (16.1%), and ABS financing was 4.32 billion yuan (19.3%). The average bond financing interest rate was 3.64%, up 0.35 percentage points YoY and 0.7 percentage points MoM. Regarding financing rates, the average bond financing interest rate this month was 3.64%, up 0.35 percentage points YoY and 0.7 percentage points MoM. Among typical real estate companies, Midea Real Estate had the highest issuance amount this month at 2.5 billion yuan, while Suzhou High-Tech had the lowest financing cost at 2.0%.

04 ★★  

Anhui: Easing Household Registration Restrictions in Hefei's Main Urban Area

The Anhui Provincial Government issued an implementation plan for the "Five-Year Action Plan for Deepening the People-Centered New-Type Urbanization Strategy," which includes reforms to the household registration system. It promotes the registration of permanent residence at the place of habitual residence, establishes public collective households in streets or communities, and implements policies for household registration in legally stable rental housing. Restrictions on household registration in Hefei's main urban area have been eased. Those with legally stable employment in Hefei, with urban employee social insurance or housing provident fund contributions for at least six months (reduced to three months for those under 45 years old), can register their household at their employer's collective household or the public collective household at their place of employment. Contribution periods in the Yangtze River Delta region can be cumulatively counted.

★Other Hot Topics★

⭕【XPeng Motors: Q4 Revenue Reached 16.11 Billion Yuan, Up 23.4% YoY; Q1 2025 Deliveries Expected to Be 91,000-93,000 Units】XPeng Motors announced that Q4 revenue last year reached 16.11 billion yuan, up 23.4% YoY. Q4 NON-GAAP net loss was 1.39 billion yuan, compared to 1.77 billion yuan in the same period of 2023. Total vehicle deliveries in Q4 2024 were 91,507 units, up 52.1% from 60,158 units in the same period of 2023. The gross margin in Q4 2024 was 14.4%, compared to 6.2% in the same period of 2023 and 15.3% in Q3 2024. XPeng Motors expects Q1 2025 deliveries to be 91,000-93,000 units, up approximately 317.0%-326.2% YoY. Total revenue is expected to range between 15 billion and 15.7 billion yuan, up approximately 129.1%-139.8% YoY.

⭕【Lei Jun: 2025 Annual Delivery Target Raised to 350,000 Units】Xiaomi Group announced Q4 revenue of 109.01 billion yuan, up 48.8% YoY, exceeding the estimate of 104.38 billion yuan. Q4 net profit was 9 billion yuan, exceeding the estimate of 5.25 billion yuan. Adjusted net profit was 8.3 billion yuan, a record high, up 69.4% YoY, including an adjusted net loss of 700 million yuan from innovative businesses such as smart EVs. Xiaomi Group's 2024 revenue reached 365.91 billion yuan, a record high, up 35.0% YoY. Adjusted net profit for the year was 27.2 billion yuan, a record high, up 41.3% YoY. Xiaomi Group Chairman and CEO Lei Jun stated that Xiaomi Auto is fully ramping up production capacity and has made some progress, raising the 2025 annual delivery target to 350,000 units (previously set at 300,000 units).

⭕【Three Departments: Support Scrappage and Renewal of China III and IV Emission Standard Commercial Vehicles, Accelerate the Update of High-Standard Low-Emission Vehicles】The Ministry of Transport, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and Ministry of Finance issued a notice on implementing the scrappage and renewal of old commercial vehicles, supporting the scrappage and renewal of China III and IV emission standard commercial vehicles, and accelerating the update of high-standard low-emission vehicles. Differentiated subsidy standards will be implemented based on the type of scrapped vehicle, the timing of early scrappage, and the power type of newly purchased vehicles. Vehicles that have already received support from other central funding channels will not be eligible for this subsidy. The subsidy policy will be implemented from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025.

⭕【CATL and NIO Reach Battery Swapping Cooperation: 2.5 Billion Yuan Investment in NIO Energy】According to reports, on the evening of March 17, NIO and CATL signed a strategic cooperation agreement to build the world's largest and most advanced passenger car battery swapping service network and deepen cooperation in industry technical standards, capital, and business. Under the agreement, CATL will support the development of NIO's battery swapping network and is advancing a strategic investment of up to 2.5 billion yuan in NIO Energy. The two parties will deepen the sharing of the battery swapping network based on unified battery standards, promoting the popularization and upgrading of battery swapping services. NIO's Firefly brand will introduce CATL's Chocolate battery swapping standards and network in future car models. The battery swapping networks of both parties will adopt a "dual-network parallel" model to provide users with more convenient and efficient battery swapping experiences. They will also jointly promote the formulation and promotion of national standards for battery swapping technology, facilitating cross-brand and cross-model battery compatibility. Together, they aim to build a closed-loop life cycle covering "battery R&D - battery swapping services - battery asset management - cascade utilization - material recycling," contributing to the high-quality and sustainable development of the NEV entire industry chain.